{
 "asOf": "2026-10-14",
 "series": {
  "us_diesel": {
   "title": "US on-highway diesel, retail, all taxes included",
   "unit": "$ per gallon",
   "source": "EIA Weekly Retail Gasoline and Diesel Prices (series EMD_EPD2D_PTE_NUS_DPG, weekly)",
   "sourceUrl": "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMD_EPD2D_PTE_NUS_DPG&f=W",
   "notes": "Weekly survey dates as EIA publishes them (Mondays). Latest week 2026-10-05 released 2026-10-06; the 2026-10-14 release was not yet out when accessed. The 21 Sep 2026 record is 6.529 (press rounded it to $6.50). The 14 Sep week is 6.285, not the $6.23 some press reported; 6.23 could not be confirmed and is not used.",
   "points": [
    {
     "date": "2026-02-02",
     "value": 3.681,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-02-09",
     "value": 3.688,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-02-16",
     "value": 3.711,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-02-23",
     "value": 3.809,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-03-02",
     "value": 3.897,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-03-09",
     "value": 4.859,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-03-16",
     "value": 5.071,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-03-23",
     "value": 5.375,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-03-30",
     "value": 5.401,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-04-06",
     "value": 5.643,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-04-13",
     "value": 5.608,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-04-20",
     "value": 5.403,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-04-27",
     "value": 5.351,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-05-04",
     "value": 5.64,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-05-11",
     "value": 5.639,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-05-18",
     "value": 5.596,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-05-25",
     "value": 5.523,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-01",
     "value": 5.35,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-08",
     "value": 5.21,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-15",
     "value": 5.059,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-22",
     "value": 4.832,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-29",
     "value": 4.668,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-06",
     "value": 4.578,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-13",
     "value": 4.796,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-20",
     "value": 5.134,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-27",
     "value": 5.313,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "value": 5.348,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-10",
     "value": 5.257,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-17",
     "value": 5.454,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-24",
     "value": 5.652,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-31",
     "value": 5.599,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-07",
     "value": 5.967,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-14",
     "value": 6.285,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-21",
     "value": 6.529,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-28",
     "value": 6.382,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-05",
     "value": 6.199,
     "kind": "real"
    }
   ]
  },
  "trump_approval": {
   "title": "Trump job approval, Reuters/Ipsos, all US adults",
   "unit": "% approve",
   "source": "Ipsos topline PDFs for each Reuters/Ipsos poll (20 polls); Reuters reports via AOL (Mar 20-23) and Fox (Aug 14-17) for the two polls without an Ipsos release page",
   "sourceUrl": "https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/latest-us-opinion-polls",
   "notes": "Each point is dated on the last day of fieldwork; field ranges, sample sizes and disapproval figures are in cutoff-data-sources.md. Values are the 'Approve (Net)' total-adults column of the Ipsos topline. The 17-20 Sep 2026 poll is 32% (66% disapprove). No Reuters/Ipsos approval poll was found for 2-13 Mar, 1-14 Apr or 1-23 Jul 2026 beyond those listed.",
   "points": [
    {
     "date": "2026-01-05",
     "value": 42,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-01-13",
     "value": 41,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-01-25",
     "value": 38,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-02-16",
     "value": 38,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-02-23",
     "value": 40,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-03-01",
     "value": 38,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-03-19",
     "value": 40,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-03-23",
     "value": 36,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-04-20",
     "value": 35,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-04-27",
     "value": 34,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-05-11",
     "value": 36,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-05-18",
     "value": 35,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-08",
     "value": 35,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-22",
     "value": 34,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-26",
     "value": 37,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "value": 35,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-17",
     "value": 33,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-24",
     "value": 33,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-31",
     "value": 33,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-14",
     "value": 35,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-20",
     "value": 32,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-05",
     "value": 32,
     "kind": "real"
    }
   ]
  },
  "de_diesel": {
   "title": "Germany diesel, ADAC monthly national average",
   "unit": "EUR per litre",
   "source": "ADAC, Kraftstoffpreisentwicklung (monthly tables 2021-2026, page updated 01.10.2026), cross-checked against ADAC press releases for Jan, Mar, Apr and Sep 2026",
   "sourceUrl": "https://www.adac.de/verkehr/tanken-kraftstoff-antrieb/deutschland/kraftstoffpreisentwicklung/",
   "notes": "Complete Jan 2021 to Sep 2026, no gaps. ADAC shows 2021-2025 in cents (e.g. 123,3) and 2026 in euros; all converted to EUR/l here. Oct 2026 not yet published. From 1 Oct 2026 the energy tax on petrol and diesel falls by 14.04 ct/l, 16.7 ct/l including VAT, until 31 Dec 2026 (en2x, 30.09.2026; ADAC gives the same 16.7 ct).",
   "points": [
    {
     "date": "2021-01-01",
     "value": 1.233,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2021-02-01",
     "value": 1.276,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2021-03-01",
     "value": 1.315,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2021-04-01",
     "value": 1.309,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2021-05-01",
     "value": 1.331,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2021-06-01",
     "value": 1.363,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2021-07-01",
     "value": 1.389,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2021-08-01",
     "value": 1.386,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2021-09-01",
     "value": 1.411,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2021-10-01",
     "value": 1.533,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2021-11-01",
     "value": 1.56,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2021-12-01",
     "value": 1.519,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2022-01-01",
     "value": 1.596,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2022-02-01",
     "value": 1.662,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2022-03-01",
     "value": 2.14,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2022-04-01",
     "value": 2.024,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2022-05-01",
     "value": 2.033,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2022-06-01",
     "value": 2.019,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2022-07-01",
     "value": 1.956,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2022-08-01",
     "value": 1.959,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2022-09-01",
     "value": 2.078,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2022-10-01",
     "value": 2.105,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2022-11-01",
     "value": 1.967,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2022-12-01",
     "value": 1.811,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2023-01-01",
     "value": 1.833,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2023-02-01",
     "value": 1.754,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2023-03-01",
     "value": 1.715,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2023-04-01",
     "value": 1.67,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2023-05-01",
     "value": 1.586,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2023-06-01",
     "value": 1.59,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2023-07-01",
     "value": 1.641,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2023-08-01",
     "value": 1.766,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2023-09-01",
     "value": 1.832,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2023-10-01",
     "value": 1.819,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2023-11-01",
     "value": 1.76,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2023-12-01",
     "value": 1.695,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-01-01",
     "value": 1.706,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-02-01",
     "value": 1.746,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-03-01",
     "value": 1.728,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-04-01",
     "value": 1.731,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-05-01",
     "value": 1.669,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-06-01",
     "value": 1.657,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-07-01",
     "value": 1.652,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-08-01",
     "value": 1.596,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-09-01",
     "value": 1.544,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-10-01",
     "value": 1.571,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-11-01",
     "value": 1.588,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-12-01",
     "value": 1.604,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-01-01",
     "value": 1.678,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-02-01",
     "value": 1.687,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-03-01",
     "value": 1.627,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-04-01",
     "value": 1.586,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-05-01",
     "value": 1.558,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-06-01",
     "value": 1.585,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-07-01",
     "value": 1.617,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-08-01",
     "value": 1.58,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-09-01",
     "value": 1.587,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-10-01",
     "value": 1.589,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-11-01",
     "value": 1.642,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-12-01",
     "value": 1.598,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-01-01",
     "value": 1.692,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-02-01",
     "value": 1.722,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-03-01",
     "value": 2.164,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-04-01",
     "value": 2.263,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-05-01",
     "value": 1.991,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-01",
     "value": 1.818,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-01",
     "value": 2.097,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "value": 2.223,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-01",
     "value": 2.386,
     "kind": "real"
    }
   ]
  },
  "de_diesel_annual": {
   "title": "Germany diesel, ADAC annual national average",
   "unit": "EUR per litre",
   "source": "ADAC, Kraftstoffpreisentwicklung (annual table)",
   "sourceUrl": "https://www.adac.de/verkehr/tanken-kraftstoff-antrieb/deutschland/kraftstoffpreisentwicklung/",
   "notes": "Dated 1 January of each year. 2023 also confirmed by press reports of ADAC's 2023 review (1.722); 2024 and 2025 by press reports of ADAC's 2025 review (1.649, 1.611).",
   "points": [
    {
     "date": "2021-01-01",
     "value": 1.385,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2022-01-01",
     "value": 1.946,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2023-01-01",
     "value": 1.722,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-01-01",
     "value": 1.649,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-01-01",
     "value": 1.611,
     "kind": "real"
    }
   ]
  },
  "de_diesel_daily": {
   "title": "Germany diesel, ADAC daily national average (selected days)",
   "unit": "EUR per litre",
   "source": "ADAC press releases of 30.09.2026 ('Benzin und Diesel etwas guenstiger') and 07.10.2026 ('Tankrabatt nicht vollstaendig weitergegeben')",
   "sourceUrl": "https://presse.adac.de/meldungen/adac-ev/verkehr/benzin-und-diesel-etwas-guenstiger.html",
   "notes": "2.409 is the figure in the ADAC release dated 30 Sep 2026 (down 1.9 ct on the week); the release does not name the reading day, its infographic is labelled 29.09.2026. 2.233 is the 'current' price in the 7 Oct 2026 release (down 17.6 ct on the week), after the 1 Oct tax cut of 16.7 ct/l incl. VAT. Only these two days were sourced.",
   "points": [
    {
     "date": "2026-09-30",
     "value": 2.409,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-07",
     "value": 2.233,
     "kind": "real"
    }
   ]
  },
  "five_capex": {
   "title": "Capital spending, Alphabet + Amazon + Meta + Microsoft + Oracle, by quarter",
   "unit": "$ billion per quarter",
   "source": "wage-bet tracking.html, STRAIN object (quarterly cash-flow statements via stockanalysis.com, cash capex only, finance leases excluded; Oracle on fiscal quarters ending Feb/May/Aug/Nov mapped to the nearest calendar quarter)",
   "sourceUrl": "/Users/wildebees/Cyborg/Active coding projects/wage-bet/tracking.html",
   "notes": "Dated at calendar quarter end, Q1 2024 to Q2 2026. Sum of the five companies' raw quarterly figures. Oracle's Aug-2026 quarter (capex 28.5) is in the source but excluded here because the other four have not reported calendar Q3 2026. Per-company arrays are in cutoff-data-sources.md.",
   "points": [
    {
     "date": "2024-03-31",
     "value": 46.0,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-06-30",
     "value": 55.7,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-09-30",
     "value": 61.2,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-12-31",
     "value": 76.3,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-03-31",
     "value": 77.7,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-06-30",
     "value": 97.3,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-09-30",
     "value": 105.8,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-12-31",
     "value": 130.7,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-03-31",
     "value": 148.4,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-30",
     "value": 181.5,
     "kind": "real"
    }
   ]
  },
  "five_ocf": {
   "title": "Operating cash flow, Alphabet + Amazon + Meta + Microsoft + Oracle, by quarter",
   "unit": "$ billion per quarter",
   "source": "wage-bet tracking.html, STRAIN object (as five_capex)",
   "sourceUrl": "/Users/wildebees/Cyborg/Active coding projects/wage-bet/tracking.html",
   "notes": "Dated at calendar quarter end, Q1 2024 to Q2 2026. Oracle's Aug-2026 quarter (OCF 23.1) excluded for the same reason as in five_capex. The four quarters of 2025 sum to 602.8, consistent with the $600bn 2025 base in five_ocf_forecast.",
   "points": [
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     "date": "2024-03-31",
     "value": 104.4,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-06-30",
     "value": 114.6,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-09-30",
     "value": 123.0,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-12-31",
     "value": 136.3,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-03-31",
     "value": 120.1,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-06-30",
     "value": 134.6,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-09-30",
     "value": 167.1,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-12-31",
     "value": 181.0,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-03-31",
     "value": 157.9,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-30",
     "value": 186.4,
     "kind": "real"
    }
   ]
  },
  "five_capex_annual": {
   "title": "Capital spending, the five combined, by calendar year",
   "unit": "$ billion per year",
   "source": "wage-bet DERIVATIONS.md (2023: 154.2, 2024: 239.1, 2025: 411.5, from annual cash-flow statements; Oracle on fiscal years); 2026 plan: tracking.html SPEND_B_PER_YR = 840 (announced 2026 capex: MSFT 190, AMZN 220, GOOGL 200, META 137.5, ORCL 92.5)",
   "sourceUrl": "/Users/wildebees/Cyborg/Active coding projects/wage-bet/DERIVATIONS.md",
   "notes": "Dated 31 December of each year. 2026 is the companies' announced plans, not an outturn, so it carries kind 'forecast'. The quarterly five_capex series sums to 239.2 for 2024 (vs 239.1 annual, rounding) and 411.5 for 2025.",
   "points": [
    {
     "date": "2023-12-31",
     "value": 154.2,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-12-31",
     "value": 239.1,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-12-31",
     "value": 411.5,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-12-31",
     "value": 840.0,
     "kind": "forecast"
    }
   ]
  },
  "five_ocf_forecast": {
   "title": "Operating cash flow, the five combined: consensus path cited by Torsten Slok",
   "unit": "$ billion per year",
   "source": "Apollo Daily Spark, Torsten Slok, 'Hyperscaler Credit Rests on One Consensus Assumption', 21 Sep 2026 (operating cash flow 'from $600 billion to $2 trillion' by 2030, Google, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Oracle; FactSet consensus, not Apollo's forecast); 2025 as the base year per Yahoo Finance, 23 Sep 2026",
   "sourceUrl": "https://www.apollo.com/wealth/insights-news/insights/daily-spark/hyperscaler-credit-rests-on-one-consensus-assumption",
   "notes": "Two endpoints only. The Apollo page does not name the base year; Yahoo Finance's report of the note says '$600 billion in 2025' and 'roughly $2 trillion in 2030'. Kind 'forecast' because it is a consensus expectation, not an outturn.",
   "points": [
    {
     "date": "2025-12-31",
     "value": 600.0,
     "kind": "forecast"
    },
    {
     "date": "2030-12-31",
     "value": 2000.0,
     "kind": "forecast"
    }
   ]
  },
  "us_jobs": {
   "title": "US nonfarm payrolls, monthly change",
   "unit": "thousands",
   "source": "wage-bet tracking.html, JOBS object (asOf 2026-10-02, written by scripts/sync-payrolls.py from BLS data)",
   "sourceUrl": "/Users/wildebees/Cyborg/Active coding projects/wage-bet/tracking.html",
   "notes": "Jan 2023 to Sep 2026, current vintage as of 2026-10-02 (so Jul and Aug 2026 are revised figures). First estimates as published, from the same object: 2026-07 -23, 2026-08 162, 2026-09 29. Sep 2026 is itself a first estimate.",
   "points": [
    {
     "date": "2023-01-01",
     "value": 434,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2023-02-01",
     "value": 290,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2023-03-01",
     "value": 68,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2023-04-01",
     "value": 241,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2023-05-01",
     "value": 280,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2023-06-01",
     "value": 225,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2023-07-01",
     "value": 163,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2023-08-01",
     "value": 218,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2023-09-01",
     "value": 156,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2023-10-01",
     "value": 159,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2023-11-01",
     "value": 127,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2023-12-01",
     "value": 154,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-01-01",
     "value": 175,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-02-01",
     "value": 206,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-03-01",
     "value": 228,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-04-01",
     "value": 64,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-05-01",
     "value": 78,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-06-01",
     "value": 87,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-07-01",
     "value": 53,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-08-01",
     "value": 9,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-09-01",
     "value": 155,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-10-01",
     "value": 33,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-11-01",
     "value": 134,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-12-01",
     "value": 237,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-01-01",
     "value": -48,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-02-01",
     "value": 42,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-03-01",
     "value": 67,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-04-01",
     "value": 108,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-05-01",
     "value": 13,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-06-01",
     "value": -20,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-07-01",
     "value": 64,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-08-01",
     "value": -70,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-09-01",
     "value": 76,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-10-01",
     "value": -140,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-11-01",
     "value": 41,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-12-01",
     "value": -17,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-01-01",
     "value": 160,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-02-01",
     "value": -156,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-03-01",
     "value": 214,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-04-01",
     "value": 148,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-05-01",
     "value": 63,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-01",
     "value": 31,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-01",
     "value": -10,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "value": 133,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-01",
     "value": 29,
     "kind": "real"
    }
   ],
   "firstEstimates": {
    "2026-07": -23,
    "2026-08": 162,
    "2026-09": 29
   }
  },
  "us_10y": {
   "title": "US ten-year Treasury par yield, daily close",
   "unit": "% per year",
   "source": "US Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 10 Yr column, monthly pages Jan to Oct 2026",
   "sourceUrl": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202610",
   "notes": "Every trading day 2 Jan to 13 Oct 2026 (no 10 Oct: Treasury table has no row; 12 Oct is the Columbus Day holiday). Key closes match debt.html: 4.95 on 10 Sep, 5.01 on 16 and 18 Sep, above 5 on every day from 23 Sep, 5.29 on 30 Sep, 5.28 on 2 Oct. Latest 5.21 on 13 Oct. The mid-Feb low is 3.97 on 27 Feb.",
   "points": [
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     "date": "2026-01-02",
     "value": 4.19,
     "kind": "real"
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    {
     "date": "2026-01-05",
     "value": 4.17,
     "kind": "real"
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    {
     "date": "2026-01-06",
     "value": 4.18,
     "kind": "real"
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    {
     "date": "2026-01-07",
     "value": 4.15,
     "kind": "real"
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    {
     "date": "2026-01-08",
     "value": 4.19,
     "kind": "real"
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    {
     "date": "2026-01-09",
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     "kind": "real"
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    {
     "date": "2026-01-12",
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     "kind": "real"
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    {
     "date": "2026-01-13",
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     "kind": "real"
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    {
     "date": "2026-01-14",
     "value": 4.15,
     "kind": "real"
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    {
     "date": "2026-01-15",
     "value": 4.17,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-01-16",
     "value": 4.24,
     "kind": "real"
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    {
     "date": "2026-01-20",
     "value": 4.3,
     "kind": "real"
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    {
     "date": "2026-01-21",
     "value": 4.26,
     "kind": "real"
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    {
     "date": "2026-01-22",
     "value": 4.26,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-01-23",
     "value": 4.24,
     "kind": "real"
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    {
     "date": "2026-01-26",
     "value": 4.22,
     "kind": "real"
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    {
     "date": "2026-01-27",
     "value": 4.24,
     "kind": "real"
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    {
     "date": "2026-01-28",
     "value": 4.26,
     "kind": "real"
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    {
     "date": "2026-01-29",
     "value": 4.24,
     "kind": "real"
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    {
     "date": "2026-01-30",
     "value": 4.26,
     "kind": "real"
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    {
     "date": "2026-02-02",
     "value": 4.29,
     "kind": "real"
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    {
     "date": "2026-02-03",
     "value": 4.28,
     "kind": "real"
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    {
     "date": "2026-02-04",
     "value": 4.29,
     "kind": "real"
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    {
     "date": "2026-02-05",
     "value": 4.21,
     "kind": "real"
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     "date": "2026-02-06",
     "value": 4.22,
     "kind": "real"
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     "date": "2026-02-09",
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     "kind": "real"
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     "date": "2026-02-10",
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     "date": "2026-02-11",
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     "date": "2026-02-13",
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     "kind": "real"
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     "date": "2026-02-17",
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     "kind": "real"
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     "date": "2026-02-18",
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     "kind": "real"
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    {
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     "date": "2026-02-20",
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     "kind": "real"
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     "date": "2026-02-23",
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     "kind": "real"
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     "date": "2026-02-24",
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     "kind": "real"
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     "kind": "real"
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     "date": "2026-02-26",
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     "kind": "real"
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     "date": "2026-02-27",
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     "kind": "real"
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     "date": "2026-03-02",
     "value": 4.05,
     "kind": "real"
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    {
     "date": "2026-03-03",
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     "kind": "real"
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    {
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     "kind": "real"
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     "value": 4.13,
     "kind": "real"
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     "value": 4.15,
     "kind": "real"
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     "date": "2026-03-09",
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     "kind": "real"
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    {
     "date": "2026-03-10",
     "value": 4.15,
     "kind": "real"
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    {
     "date": "2026-03-11",
     "value": 4.21,
     "kind": "real"
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    {
     "date": "2026-03-12",
     "value": 4.27,
     "kind": "real"
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    {
     "date": "2026-03-13",
     "value": 4.28,
     "kind": "real"
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    {
     "date": "2026-03-16",
     "value": 4.23,
     "kind": "real"
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    {
     "date": "2026-03-17",
     "value": 4.2,
     "kind": "real"
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    {
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     "value": 4.26,
     "kind": "real"
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     "kind": "real"
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    {
     "date": "2026-03-20",
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     "kind": "real"
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     "date": "2026-03-23",
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     "kind": "real"
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     "date": "2026-03-24",
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     "kind": "real"
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     "date": "2026-03-25",
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     "kind": "real"
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     "kind": "real"
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     "date": "2026-03-30",
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     "kind": "real"
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     "kind": "real"
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     "date": "2026-04-16",
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     "date": "2026-04-17",
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     "kind": "real"
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     "date": "2026-04-21",
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     "date": "2026-05-05",
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     "kind": "real"
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    {
     "date": "2026-05-06",
     "value": 4.36,
     "kind": "real"
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    {
     "date": "2026-05-07",
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     "kind": "real"
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    {
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     "kind": "real"
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    {
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     "kind": "real"
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     "kind": "real"
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    {
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     "date": "2026-05-15",
     "value": 4.59,
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    {
     "date": "2026-05-18",
     "value": 4.61,
     "kind": "real"
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    {
     "date": "2026-05-19",
     "value": 4.67,
     "kind": "real"
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    {
     "date": "2026-05-20",
     "value": 4.57,
     "kind": "real"
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    {
     "date": "2026-05-21",
     "value": 4.57,
     "kind": "real"
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    {
     "date": "2026-05-22",
     "value": 4.56,
     "kind": "real"
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    {
     "date": "2026-05-26",
     "value": 4.5,
     "kind": "real"
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    {
     "date": "2026-05-27",
     "value": 4.48,
     "kind": "real"
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    {
     "date": "2026-05-28",
     "value": 4.45,
     "kind": "real"
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    {
     "date": "2026-05-29",
     "value": 4.45,
     "kind": "real"
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    {
     "date": "2026-06-01",
     "value": 4.47,
     "kind": "real"
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    {
     "date": "2026-06-02",
     "value": 4.46,
     "kind": "real"
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     "date": "2026-06-03",
     "value": 4.49,
     "kind": "real"
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    {
     "date": "2026-06-04",
     "value": 4.47,
     "kind": "real"
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    {
     "date": "2026-06-05",
     "value": 4.55,
     "kind": "real"
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    {
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     "value": 4.56,
     "kind": "real"
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     "value": 4.53,
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    {
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     "value": 4.55,
     "kind": "real"
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    {
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     "value": 4.45,
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     "value": 4.48,
     "kind": "real"
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    {
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     "kind": "real"
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    {
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     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
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     "value": 4.48,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-07",
     "value": 4.55,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-08",
     "value": 4.56,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "value": 4.54,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-10",
     "value": 4.56,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-13",
     "value": 4.62,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-14",
     "value": 4.58,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-15",
     "value": 4.55,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-16",
     "value": 4.57,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-17",
     "value": 4.55,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-20",
     "value": 4.6,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-21",
     "value": 4.63,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-22",
     "value": 4.67,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-23",
     "value": 4.71,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-24",
     "value": 4.69,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-27",
     "value": 4.65,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-28",
     "value": 4.61,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-29",
     "value": 4.67,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-30",
     "value": 4.68,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-31",
     "value": 4.75,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "value": 4.7,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "value": 4.63,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-05",
     "value": 4.63,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-06",
     "value": 4.69,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-07",
     "value": 4.65,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-10",
     "value": 4.72,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-11",
     "value": 4.7,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-12",
     "value": 4.68,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-13",
     "value": 4.63,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-14",
     "value": 4.68,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-17",
     "value": 4.72,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-18",
     "value": 4.71,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-19",
     "value": 4.65,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-20",
     "value": 4.69,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-21",
     "value": 4.74,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-24",
     "value": 4.7,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-25",
     "value": 4.64,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-26",
     "value": 4.66,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-27",
     "value": 4.67,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-28",
     "value": 4.73,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-31",
     "value": 4.75,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-01",
     "value": 4.79,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-02",
     "value": 4.79,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-03",
     "value": 4.77,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-04",
     "value": 4.78,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-08",
     "value": 4.8,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-09",
     "value": 4.83,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-10",
     "value": 4.95,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-11",
     "value": 4.96,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-14",
     "value": 4.97,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-15",
     "value": 5.0,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-16",
     "value": 5.01,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-17",
     "value": 4.94,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-18",
     "value": 5.01,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-21",
     "value": 4.96,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-22",
     "value": 4.96,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-23",
     "value": 5.11,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-24",
     "value": 5.18,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-25",
     "value": 5.17,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-28",
     "value": 5.24,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-29",
     "value": 5.26,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-30",
     "value": 5.29,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-01",
     "value": 5.24,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-02",
     "value": 5.28,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-05",
     "value": 5.31,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-06",
     "value": 5.27,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-07",
     "value": 5.28,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-08",
     "value": 5.22,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-09",
     "value": 5.24,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-13",
     "value": 5.21,
     "kind": "real"
    }
   ]
  },
  "eu_car_exports_us": {
   "title": "EU27 exports of motor cars (HS 8703) to the United States, monthly value",
   "unit": "EUR million",
   "source": "Eurostat Comext, dataset DS-059341 (International trade since 2002 by HS2-4-6), reporter EU27_2020, partner US, product 8703, flow EXPORT, indicator VALUE_EUR, monthly; dataset updated 2026-09-15",
   "sourceUrl": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/comext/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/DS-059341?format=JSON&lang=EN&reporter=EU27_2020&partner=US&product=8703&flow=2&indicators=VALUE_EUR&freq=M&sinceTimePeriod=2024-01",
   "notes": "Jan 2024 to Jul 2026, complete. Aug 2026 onward not yet published (null in the API). Values are euros divided by one million, rounded to 0.1.",
   "points": [
    {
     "date": "2024-01-01",
     "value": 2480.8,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-02-01",
     "value": 3717.8,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-03-01",
     "value": 3512.7,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-04-01",
     "value": 3793.6,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-05-01",
     "value": 3472.2,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-06-01",
     "value": 3649.8,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-07-01",
     "value": 3218.3,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-08-01",
     "value": 2454.1,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-09-01",
     "value": 3402.6,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-10-01",
     "value": 4032.1,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-11-01",
     "value": 3636.3,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-12-01",
     "value": 2315.9,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-01-01",
     "value": 3042.4,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-02-01",
     "value": 3612.1,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-03-01",
     "value": 3614.6,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-04-01",
     "value": 2771.1,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-05-01",
     "value": 2151.4,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-06-01",
     "value": 2410.6,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-07-01",
     "value": 2411.9,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-08-01",
     "value": 1335.4,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-09-01",
     "value": 2497.7,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-10-01",
     "value": 2833.7,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-11-01",
     "value": 2555.6,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-12-01",
     "value": 1995.3,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-01-01",
     "value": 2111.7,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-02-01",
     "value": 2567.2,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-03-01",
     "value": 2724.7,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-04-01",
     "value": 2750.9,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-05-01",
     "value": 2210.1,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-01",
     "value": 2680.5,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-01",
     "value": 2652.5,
     "kind": "real"
    }
   ]
  },
  "eu_car_exports_us_annual": {
   "title": "EU27 exports of motor cars (HS 8703) to the United States, annual value",
   "unit": "EUR million",
   "source": "Eurostat Comext DS-059341, same query with freq=A",
   "sourceUrl": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/comext/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/DS-059341?format=JSON&lang=EN&reporter=EU27_2020&partner=US&product=8703&flow=2&indicators=VALUE_EUR&freq=A&sinceTimePeriod=2023",
   "notes": "2025 is 21.3% below 2024, matching Eunews' Eurostat-based report (EUR 31.23bn, -21.30%). ACEA's fact sheet (4 May 2026) gives EUR 30.9bn for 2025 car exports and 667,794 units; the difference is ACEA's own compilation. 2026 not yet available.",
   "points": [
    {
     "date": "2023-12-31",
     "value": 41606.5,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2024-12-31",
     "value": 39686.2,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-12-31",
     "value": 31231.9,
     "kind": "real"
    }
   ]
  },
  "sp500": {
   "title": "S&P 500, close on the last trading day of each month",
   "unit": "index points",
   "source": "FRED series SP500 (S&P Dow Jones Indices, daily close), downloaded as CSV; last observation of each month selected",
   "sourceUrl": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=SP500",
   "notes": "Jan to Sep 2026 are month-end closes. The Oct point is the latest close available (13 Oct 2026), not a month end. Macrotrends' listing of the same closes was cited in search results but could not be opened (HTTP 403).",
   "points": [
    {
     "date": "2026-01-30",
     "value": 6939.03,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-02-27",
     "value": 6878.88,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-03-31",
     "value": 6528.52,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-04-30",
     "value": 7209.01,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-05-29",
     "value": 7580.06,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-30",
     "value": 7499.36,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-31",
     "value": 7489.72,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-31",
     "value": 7686.14,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-30",
     "value": 7651.54,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-13",
     "value": 7805.45,
     "kind": "real"
    }
   ]
  },
  "oat_bund_spread": {
   "title": "France minus Germany 10-year government bond yield, monthly average",
   "unit": "percentage points",
   "source": "FRED series IRLTLT01FRM156N and IRLTLT01DEM156N (OECD Main Economic Indicators, long-term government bond yields, 10-year, monthly averages); spread computed as France minus Germany",
   "sourceUrl": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=IRLTLT01FRM156N",
   "notes": "Monthly averages, Jan to Aug 2026; Sep and Oct 2026 not yet published by OECD. These are averages over the month, not month-end readings, so they run lower than the month-end series below in a month when the spread widened late (Sep). Germany's FRED values carry many decimals; the spread is rounded to 0.01.",
   "points": [
    {
     "date": "2026-01-01",
     "value": 0.72,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-02-01",
     "value": 0.65,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-03-01",
     "value": 0.73,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-04-01",
     "value": 0.73,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-05-01",
     "value": 0.69,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-01",
     "value": 0.72,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-01",
     "value": 0.78,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "value": 0.82,
     "kind": "real"
    }
   ]
  },
  "oat_bund_spread_monthend": {
   "title": "France minus Germany 10-year yield, month-end and latest daily reading",
   "unit": "percentage points",
   "source": "ideal-investisseur.fr OAT/Bund spread tracker (daily table citing Banque de France and Deutsche Bundesbank), accessed 2026-10-14",
   "sourceUrl": "https://www.ideal-investisseur.fr/en/markets/oat-bund-spread.html",
   "notes": "Spread given on the page in basis points (80.4, 117.1, 139.5), converted to percentage points. The tracker's table starts 27 Aug 2026, so no earlier month-ends were available from it. 12 Oct is the latest reading, not a month end. The 2 Oct 2026 reading was 1.469, the widest in the table.",
   "points": [
    {
     "date": "2026-08-31",
     "value": 0.804,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-30",
     "value": 1.171,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-12",
     "value": 1.395,
     "kind": "real"
    }
   ]
  },
  "anthropic_runrate": {
   "title": "Anthropic annualised revenue run rate",
   "unit": "$ billion per year",
   "source": "Anthropic's own posts as quoted by Simon Willison (29 May 2026): 'approximately $9 billion at the end of 2025' and 'surpassed $30 billion' (6 Apr 2026 post), '$14 billion' (Series G, 12 Feb 2026), 'crossed $47 billion earlier this month' (Series H, 28/29 May 2026); $65 billion at end of July 2026 per Bloomberg, as reported by TechCrunch (17 Aug 2026)",
   "sourceUrl": "https://simonwillison.net/2026/May/29/anthropic/",
   "notes": "Company-reported run rates (latest month times 12), not audited revenue. The $47bn point is dated on the Series H announcement; the figure refers to 'earlier this month' (Willison's chart puts it at 7 May). The $65bn point is dated 31 Jul 2026 ('end of July'). The anthropic.com pages themselves were not opened; the quotations are from Willison's post, which links them.",
   "points": [
    {
     "date": "2025-12-31",
     "value": 9.0,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-02-12",
     "value": 14.0,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-04-06",
     "value": 30.0,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-05-28",
     "value": 47.0,
     "kind": "real"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-31",
     "value": 65.0,
     "kind": "real"
    }
   ]
  },
  "anthropic_runrate_forecast_low": {
   "title": "Anthropic run rate, investor expectation for end-2026, low end",
   "unit": "$ billion per year",
   "source": "Financial Times, as reported by TechCrunch (17 Aug 2026) and Unite.ai (17 Aug 2026): investors expect Anthropic 'to finish 2026 between $100 billion and $120 billion'",
   "sourceUrl": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/08/17/anthropics-annualized-revenue-surges-to-65b/",
   "notes": "Investor expectation, not company guidance. Kind 'forecast'.",
   "points": [
    {
     "date": "2026-12-31",
     "value": 100.0,
     "kind": "forecast"
    }
   ]
  },
  "anthropic_runrate_forecast_high": {
   "title": "Anthropic run rate, investor expectation for end-2026, high end",
   "unit": "$ billion per year",
   "source": "As anthropic_runrate_forecast_low",
   "sourceUrl": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/08/17/anthropics-annualized-revenue-surges-to-65b/",
   "notes": "Investor expectation, not company guidance. Kind 'forecast'.",
   "points": [
    {
     "date": "2026-12-31",
     "value": 120.0,
     "kind": "forecast"
    }
   ]
  },
  "de_diesel_story": {
   "title": "Diesel in Germany, the story's path",
   "unit": "€ per litre",
   "source": "Diesel Winter, text v14 and storyboard",
   "sourceUrl": "",
   "notes": "Invented for the story. From the price table in the late-October chapter and Appendix D's model; the end-March value from the storyboard's last beat.",
   "points": [
    {
     "date": "2026-10-05",
     "value": 2.25,
     "kind": "story"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-05",
     "value": 2.75,
     "kind": "story"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-12-15",
     "value": 2.55,
     "kind": "story"
    },
    {
     "date": "2027-01-01",
     "value": 2.72,
     "kind": "story"
    },
    {
     "date": "2027-03-31",
     "value": 2.6,
     "kind": "story"
    }
   ]
  },
  "us_10y_story": {
   "title": "Ten-year US Treasury yield, the story's path",
   "unit": "%",
   "source": "Diesel Winter, text v14 and storyboard",
   "sourceUrl": "",
   "notes": "Invented for the story. Text: the ban feeds inflation (Oct); the Fed holds with one quarter-point rise, yield stays above 5% (Nov); selling resumes in early January (rail reads 5.6%); the yield falls in February as investors flee to safety; late-March value from the storyboard's last beat.",
   "points": [
    {
     "date": "2026-10-13",
     "value": 5.21,
     "kind": "story"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-27",
     "value": 5.4,
     "kind": "story"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-20",
     "value": 5.45,
     "kind": "story"
    },
    {
     "date": "2027-01-08",
     "value": 5.6,
     "kind": "story"
    },
    {
     "date": "2027-02-26",
     "value": 5.0,
     "kind": "story"
    },
    {
     "date": "2027-03-26",
     "value": 4.5,
     "kind": "story"
    }
   ]
  },
  "us_jobs_story": {
   "title": "Change in US jobs, the story's months",
   "unit": "thousands",
   "source": "Diesel Winter, text v14 and storyboard",
   "sourceUrl": "",
   "notes": "Invented for the story. Text gives December −50, February −50 and a March survey pointing to −150. October, November and January are not in the text; they are set near zero so the chart has no hole, and should be read as filler.",
   "points": [
    {
     "date": "2026-10-01",
     "value": 15,
     "kind": "story"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-01",
     "value": -10,
     "kind": "story"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-12-01",
     "value": -50,
     "kind": "story"
    },
    {
     "date": "2027-01-01",
     "value": -20,
     "kind": "story"
    },
    {
     "date": "2027-02-01",
     "value": -50,
     "kind": "story"
    },
    {
     "date": "2027-03-01",
     "value": -150,
     "kind": "story"
    }
   ]
  },
  "eu_car_exports_us_story": {
   "title": "EU car exports to the US, the story's months",
   "unit": "€ million",
   "source": "Diesel Winter, text v14 and storyboard",
   "sourceUrl": "",
   "notes": "Invented for the story. August to October held at the July 2026 real level; the November and December rush (text: carmakers ship as many cars as their ports can load) at 1.5× and 1.9×; January 2027 at 0.6× as the rush unwinds.",
   "points": [
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "value": 2652,
     "kind": "story"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-01",
     "value": 2652,
     "kind": "story"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-01",
     "value": 2652,
     "kind": "story"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-01",
     "value": 3979,
     "kind": "story"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-12-01",
     "value": 5040,
     "kind": "story"
    },
    {
     "date": "2027-01-01",
     "value": 1592,
     "kind": "story"
    }
   ]
  },
  "sp500_story": {
   "title": "S&P 500, the story's path",
   "unit": "index",
   "source": "Diesel Winter, text v14 and storyboard",
   "sourceUrl": "",
   "notes": "Invented for the story. Held near the October real level to January; six falling sessions in February (text); the mid-March spending cut, then −14% in the fortnight after it (text).",
   "points": [
    {
     "date": "2026-11-30",
     "value": 7884,
     "kind": "story"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-12-31",
     "value": 7962,
     "kind": "story"
    },
    {
     "date": "2027-01-29",
     "value": 7805,
     "kind": "story"
    },
    {
     "date": "2027-02-26",
     "value": 7415,
     "kind": "story"
    },
    {
     "date": "2027-03-12",
     "value": 7337,
     "kind": "story"
    },
    {
     "date": "2027-03-26",
     "value": 6310,
     "kind": "story"
    }
   ]
  },
  "oat_bund_spread_story": {
   "title": "French minus German ten-year yield, the story's path",
   "unit": "percentage points",
   "source": "Diesel Winter, text v14 and storyboard",
   "sourceUrl": "",
   "notes": "Invented for the story. Builds on the real 1.395 of 12 Oct 2026. Widens sharply in February (text); the ECB's Transmission Protection Instrument on 24 Feb at the peak of 1.9, raised from 1.6 on 14 Oct 2026 because the real spread had already reached 1.4; narrows after the first common bond sale at the end of March.",
   "points": [
    {
     "date": "2026-10-12",
     "value": 1.395,
     "kind": "story"
    },
    {
     "date": "2027-01-10",
     "value": 1.55,
     "kind": "story"
    },
    {
     "date": "2027-02-24",
     "value": 1.9,
     "kind": "story"
    },
    {
     "date": "2027-03-10",
     "value": 1.6,
     "kind": "story"
    },
    {
     "date": "2027-03-31",
     "value": 0.9,
     "kind": "story"
    }
   ]
  },
  "anthropic_runrate_story": {
   "title": "Anthropic's annualised revenue, the story's leak",
   "unit": "$bn",
   "source": "Diesel Winter, text v14 and storyboard",
   "sourceUrl": "",
   "notes": "Invented for the story. Text: the January 2027 figure that leaks in early March, $90bn, against the $100–120bn investors expected by December.",
   "points": [
    {
     "date": "2027-01-31",
     "value": 90,
     "kind": "story"
    }
   ]
  }
 },
 "story": {
  "recordEnds": "2026-10-14",
  "note": "Everything dated after recordEnds in a *_story series is invented. Real series stop at their source's latest release; the join on every chart is 14 October 2026 (moved from 10 October on 15 October 2026, when the real week of 10 to 14 October went into the text). A story point dated on or before recordEnds is a join, not an event."
 },
 "eu27": {
  "title": "EU27 population on 1 January 2025, by member state",
  "unit": "persons",
  "kind": "real",
  "source": "Eurostat, tps00001 (Population on 1 January), API, dataset updated 2026-09-30, opened 2026-10-16",
  "sourceUrl": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/tps00001/default/table",
  "asOf": "2025-01-01",
  "qmv": {
   "states": 15,
   "populationShare": 0.65,
   "blockingMinorityStates": 4,
   "source": "Article 16(4) of the Treaty on European Union and Article 238(3) TFEU: a qualified majority is at least 55% of members (15 of 27) representing at least 65% of the population; a blocking minority must include at least four members"
  },
  "countries": [
   {
    "code": "DE",
    "name": "Germany",
    "population": 83577140
   },
   {
    "code": "FR",
    "name": "France",
    "population": 68882600
   },
   {
    "code": "IT",
    "name": "Italy",
    "population": 58943464
   },
   {
    "code": "ES",
    "name": "Spain",
    "population": 49128297
   },
   {
    "code": "PL",
    "name": "Poland",
    "population": 36497495
   },
   {
    "code": "RO",
    "name": "Romania",
    "population": 19043151
   },
   {
    "code": "NL",
    "name": "Netherlands",
    "population": 18044027
   },
   {
    "code": "BE",
    "name": "Belgium",
    "population": 11883495
   },
   {
    "code": "PT",
    "name": "Portugal",
    "population": 11387222
   },
   {
    "code": "CZ",
    "name": "Czechia",
    "population": 10909500
   },
   {
    "code": "SE",
    "name": "Sweden",
    "population": 10587710
   },
   {
    "code": "EL",
    "name": "Greece",
    "population": 10372335
   },
   {
    "code": "HU",
    "name": "Hungary",
    "population": 9539502
   },
   {
    "code": "AT",
    "name": "Austria",
    "population": 9197213
   },
   {
    "code": "BG",
    "name": "Bulgaria",
    "population": 6437360
   },
   {
    "code": "DK",
    "name": "Denmark",
    "population": 5992734
   },
   {
    "code": "FI",
    "name": "Finland",
    "population": 5635971
   },
   {
    "code": "IE",
    "name": "Ireland",
    "population": 5440278
   },
   {
    "code": "SK",
    "name": "Slovakia",
    "population": 5419451
   },
   {
    "code": "HR",
    "name": "Croatia",
    "population": 3874350
   },
   {
    "code": "LT",
    "name": "Lithuania",
    "population": 2890664
   },
   {
    "code": "SI",
    "name": "Slovenia",
    "population": 2130850
   },
   {
    "code": "LV",
    "name": "Latvia",
    "population": 1860565
   },
   {
    "code": "EE",
    "name": "Estonia",
    "population": 1369995
   },
   {
    "code": "CY",
    "name": "Cyprus",
    "population": 982966
   },
   {
    "code": "LU",
    "name": "Luxembourg",
    "population": 681973
   },
   {
    "code": "MT",
    "name": "Malta",
    "population": 574250
   }
  ]
 },
 "cards": {
  "russian-diesel": {
   "title": "Europe's imports of Russian diesel",
   "kind": "real",
   "bars": true,
   "rows": [
    {
     "value": 29.9,
     "text": "29.9 Mt",
     "label": "2022, the year before the ban"
    },
    {
     "value": 2.9,
     "text": "2.9 Mt",
     "label": "2024"
    }
   ],
   "source": "S&P Global Energy figures as reported (Energy News Beat, \"Russia extends diesel export ban\", 2026): 29.9 million tonnes in 2022, 2.9 million in 2024, Russia's share from nearly 50% to about 5%",
   "sourceUrl": "https://energynewsbeat.co/diesel/russia-extends-diesel-export-ban-through-october-the-eu-about-to-get-hit-by-the-saudi-oil-crisis/"
  },
  "diesel-share": {
   "title": "New cars sold in Western Europe that ran on diesel",
   "kind": "real",
   "bars": true,
   "rows": [
    {
     "value": 55.8,
     "text": "56%",
     "label": "2010, the peak"
    }
   ],
   "source": "US Department of Energy, Fact #716 (27 Feb 2012), from Automotive Industry Data: 55.8% in 2010, 51.8% in 2011",
   "sourceUrl": "https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-716-february-27-2012-diesels-are-more-half-new-cars-sold-western-europe"
  },
  "capex-second": {
   "title": "The five's capital spending, 2026 plan",
   "kind": "forecast",
   "rows": [
    {
     "value": 840.0,
     "text": "$840bn",
     "label": "for the year"
    },
    {
     "value": 2.3013698630136985,
     "text": "$2.3bn",
     "label": "a day"
    },
    {
     "value": 26636.225266362253,
     "text": "$26,636",
     "label": "a second"
    }
   ],
   "source": "Derived from five_capex_annual (2026 plan, 840): divided by 365 days and by 86,400 seconds"
  },
  "heating-oil": {
   "title": "A household filling its tank for the winter",
   "kind": "story",
   "bars": false,
   "rows": [
    {
     "value": 2500,
     "text": "2,500 l",
     "label": "of heating oil"
    },
    {
     "value": 0.5,
     "text": "+€0.50",
     "label": "a litre, October to November, the story",
     "kind": "story"
    },
    {
     "value": 1250.0,
     "text": "€1,250",
     "label": "more than in early October",
     "kind": "story"
    }
   ],
   "source": "Derived from de_diesel_story (5 Oct 2.25, 5 Nov 2.75): heating oil assumed to rise by the same cents per litre as diesel (text)"
  },
  "afd": {
   "title": "Saxony-Anhalt, state election, 6 September 2026",
   "kind": "real",
   "bars": true,
   "rows": [
    {
     "value": 43.8,
     "text": "43.8%",
     "label": "AfD, its best result in any state"
    },
    {
     "value": 17.2,
     "text": "17.2%",
     "label": "CDU"
    }
   ],
   "source": "OSW, \"Germany: AfD scores landslide victory in Saxony-Anhalt\", 7 Sep 2026 (final result: AfD 43.8%, 39 of 83 seats; CDU 17.2%; turnout 77.8%)",
   "sourceUrl": "https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2026-09-07/germany-afd-scores-landslide-victory-saxony-anhalt"
  },
  "patriots": {
   "title": "Patriot interceptors",
   "kind": "real",
   "rows": [
    {
     "value": 0.5,
     "text": "about half",
     "label": "of the US stock fired defending its Gulf bases in the Iran war"
    },
    {
     "value": 0.33,
     "text": "a third",
     "label": "as many interceptors reached Ukraine from its allies in January to June 2026 as a year earlier"
    }
   ],
   "source": "bne IntelliNews, \"Ukraine's interceptor missiles run dry as Zelenskiy scours the world for more\"; European Pravda, 26 Mar 2026",
   "sourceUrl": "https://www.intellinews.com/ukraine-s-interceptor-missiles-run-dry-as-zelenskiy-scours-the-world-for-more-459454/"
  },
  "turnberry": {
   "title": "The Turnberry deal, 27 July 2025",
   "kind": "real",
   "rows": [
    {
     "value": 15,
     "text": "15%",
     "label": "US tariff on most EU goods"
    },
    {
     "value": 750,
     "text": "$750bn",
     "label": "of US energy the EU would buy over three years"
    },
    {
     "value": 600,
     "text": "$600bn",
     "label": "of EU investment in the US"
    }
   ],
   "source": "Joint statement on a United States–European Union framework on an agreement on reciprocal, fair and balanced trade, 21 August 2025, and the White House and Commission statements of 27–28 July 2025",
   "sourceUrl": "https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/statement_25_1977"
  },
  "grok-fine": {
   "title": "The Grok fine, the sum",
   "kind": "real",
   "rows": [
    {
     "value": 6,
     "text": "6%",
     "label": "of worldwide turnover, the ceiling in the Digital Services Act"
    },
    {
     "value": 5.08,
     "text": "$5.08bn",
     "label": "Twitter's revenue in 2021, its last published year"
    },
    {
     "value": 0.305,
     "text": "$305m",
     "label": "the fine, the story",
     "kind": "story"
    }
   ],
   "source": "DSA Article 52(3) (fines up to 6% of annual worldwide turnover); Twitter, Inc. Form 10-K for 2021: revenue $5,077.5 million; the multiplication is the story's",
   "sourceUrl": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001418091&type=10-K"
  },
  "cuerpo": {
   "title": "Spain's plan for common borrowing, 9 July 2026",
   "kind": "real",
   "rows": [
    {
     "value": 850,
     "text": "€850bn",
     "label": "a year, if all 27 and the ESM and EFSF take part"
    },
    {
     "value": 5000,
     "text": "€5tn",
     "label": "of common debt within five years"
    },
    {
     "value": 25,
     "text": "€25bn",
     "label": "a year saved once that stock exists, at German rates"
    }
   ],
   "source": "Euronews, \"Growing momentum for EU joint borrowing, Cuerpo tells Euronews\", 9 Jul 2026; the €25bn figure from his remarks at the IMF spring meetings, April 2026",
   "sourceUrl": "https://www.euronews.com/2026/07/09/growing-momentum-for-eu-joint-borrowing-cuerpo-tells-euronews"
  }
 },
 "bond_sale": {
  "story": {
   "offered": 25,
   "orders": 200,
   "date": "2027-03-31",
   "label": "March 2027, the story",
   "kind": "story",
   "notes": "Text: €25bn of ten-year paper, orders above €200bn, eight times the offer. Invented."
  },
  "precedent": {
   "offered": 20,
   "orders": 142,
   "date": "2021-06-15",
   "label": "June 2021, the record",
   "kind": "real",
   "source": "European Commission press release, 15 June 2021: first NextGenerationEU bond, €20 billion, ten-year, orders of more than €142 billion",
   "sourceUrl": "https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_21_3019"
  },
  "map": {
   "center": [
    10,
    51
   ],
   "zoom": 3.3
  },
  "pins": [
   [
    "London",
    -0.12,
    51.5
   ],
   [
    "Paris",
    2.35,
    48.86
   ],
   [
    "Frankfurt",
    8.68,
    50.11
   ],
   [
    "Amsterdam",
    4.9,
    52.37
   ],
   [
    "Luxembourg",
    6.13,
    49.61
   ],
   [
    "Brussels",
    4.35,
    50.85
   ],
   [
    "Zurich",
    8.54,
    47.37
   ],
   [
    "Milan",
    9.19,
    45.46
   ],
   [
    "Madrid",
    -3.7,
    40.42
   ],
   [
    "Lisbon",
    -9.14,
    38.72
   ],
   [
    "Dublin",
    -6.26,
    53.35
   ],
   [
    "Edinburgh",
    -3.19,
    55.95
   ],
   [
    "Copenhagen",
    12.57,
    55.68
   ],
   [
    "Stockholm",
    18.07,
    59.33
   ],
   [
    "Oslo",
    10.75,
    59.91
   ],
   [
    "Helsinki",
    24.94,
    60.17
   ],
   [
    "Vienna",
    16.37,
    48.21
   ],
   [
    "Munich",
    11.58,
    48.14
   ],
   [
    "Warsaw",
    21.01,
    52.23
   ],
   [
    "Prague",
    14.42,
    50.08
   ],
   [
    "Rome",
    12.5,
    41.9
   ],
   [
    "Athens",
    23.73,
    37.98
   ],
   [
    "Geneva",
    6.14,
    46.2
   ],
   [
    "Hamburg",
    9.99,
    53.55
   ],
   [
    "Düsseldorf",
    6.78,
    51.23
   ],
   [
    "Rotterdam",
    4.48,
    51.92
   ],
   [
    "Barcelona",
    2.17,
    41.39
   ],
   [
    "Lyon",
    4.84,
    45.76
   ],
   [
    "Budapest",
    19.04,
    47.5
   ],
   [
    "Bucharest",
    26.1,
    44.43
   ],
   [
    "Riga",
    24.1,
    56.95
   ],
   [
    "Tallinn",
    24.75,
    59.44
   ],
   [
    "Vilnius",
    25.28,
    54.69
   ],
   [
    "Bratislava",
    17.11,
    48.15
   ],
   [
    "Ljubljana",
    14.5,
    46.05
   ],
   [
    "Zagreb",
    15.98,
    45.81
   ],
   [
    "Valletta",
    14.51,
    35.9
   ],
   [
    "Nicosia",
    33.36,
    35.17
   ],
   [
    "Reykjavik",
    -21.9,
    64.13
   ],
   [
    "Sofia",
    23.32,
    42.7
   ],
   [
    "Gothenburg",
    11.97,
    57.71
   ],
   [
    "Turin",
    7.69,
    45.07
   ]
  ],
  "pinsNote": "Where the orders come from is invented: European financial centres and capitals, one pin each, in no particular order."
 }
}