# Cut Off: sources for cutoff-data.json

Version 1 · 2026-10-14

All web pages were opened on 14 October 2026. All local files were read the same day. Every point in `cutoff-data.json` carries `"kind":"real"` except the five forecast points named below. No value is estimated or interpolated; where a source lacked a figure, the series has a gap and this file says so.

Series keys in the JSON that were not in the brief: `de_diesel_annual`, `de_diesel_daily`, `five_capex_annual`, `eu_car_exports_us_annual`, `oat_bund_spread_monthend`, `anthropic_runrate_forecast_low`, `anthropic_runrate_forecast_high`. They exist so that each series keeps one frequency and one definition; the brief's figures are all present.

## 1. us_diesel

- Opened: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/ (current release, 3 weeks) and https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMD_EPD2D_PTE_NUS_DPG&f=W (full weekly history).
- Taken: US average No. 2 diesel retail price, all taxes included, every week from 2 Feb 2026 to 5 Oct 2026 (36 points), as EIA prints them, to three decimals.
- The record week is 21 Sep 2026 at 6.529 (press rounded to $6.50). The 14 Sep week is 6.285; the "$6.23" mid-September figure in the brief did not appear in EIA's table and no source for it was opened, so it is not in the file.
- Gap: the release due 14 Oct 2026 (for the week of 12 Oct) was not yet on the page when accessed. Complete otherwise.

## 2. trump_approval

- Opened: Ipsos's listing of releases https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/latest-us-opinion-polls, then each 2026 Reuters/Ipsos release page and the topline PDF linked from it (downloaded with curl, read with pdftotext). The value used is the "Approve (Net)" figure in the Total (all adults) column of the question "Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?".
- For two polls Ipsos has no release page in its listing; Reuters' report was opened via a syndication copy: AOL (24 Mar 2026) for the 20–23 Mar poll and Fox 10 Phoenix (18 Aug 2026) for the 14–17 Aug poll.
- Also opened as cross-checks: Wikipedia "Opinion polling on the second Trump presidency" (only the Sep 17–20 and Sep 30–Oct 5 polls were listed), pollsmax.com (used only to find poll dates; several of its figures turned out to be registered-voter columns or wrong, e.g. it gives 38% for 18 May where the topline says 35%, so none of its numbers were used).
- Each point is dated on the last field day. Full table (all adults):

| Field dates | n | Approve | Disapprove | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4–5 | 1,248 | 42 | 55 | Ipsos topline, Venezuela/Maduro survey |
| Jan 12–13 | 1,248 | 41 | 57 | Ipsos topline, Greenland survey |
| Jan 23–25 | 1,139 | 38 | 59 | Ipsos topline, January Core Political |
| Feb 13–16 | 1,117 | 38 | 60 | Ipsos topline, February Core Political |
| Feb 18–23 | 4,638 | 40 | 58 | Ipsos topline, Large Issue Feb 2026 (released 3 Mar) |
| Feb 28–Mar 1 | 1,282 | 38 | 60 | Ipsos topline, Iran Airstrike poll |
| Mar 17–19 | 1,545 | 40 | 58 | Ipsos topline, Iran poll March 2026 |
| Mar 20–23 | 1,272 | 36 | 62 | Reuters via AOL, 24 Mar 2026 (no Ipsos PDF found) |
| Apr 15–20 | 4,557 | 35 | 62 | Ipsos topline, Large Issue April 2026 |
| Apr 24–27 | 1,269 | 34 | 64 | Ipsos topline, Core Political April 2026 |
| May 8–11 | 1,254 | 36 | 62 | Ipsos topline, May Political Update |
| May 15–18 | 1,271 | 35 | 63 | Ipsos topline, Core Political May |
| Jun 3–8 | 4,531 | 35 | 63 | Ipsos topline, Large Issue June 2026 |
| Jun 18–22 | 1,262 | 34 | 64 | Ipsos topline, June Core Political |
| Jul 24–26 | 1,248 | 37 | 60 or 61 | Ipsos topline, July Core Political (two versions of the PDF; disapprove differs by one point) |
| Jul 29–Aug 3 | 4,505 | 35 | 63 | Ipsos topline, August Large Sample |
| Aug 14–17 | 1,166 | 33 | 64 | Reuters via Fox 10 Phoenix, 18 Aug 2026 (no Ipsos PDF found) |
| Aug 21–24 | 1,215 | 33 | 65 | Ipsos topline, August Core Political |
| Aug 28–31 | 1,167 | 33 | 63 | Ipsos topline, August 2026 Poll (8.31) |
| Sep 11–14 | 1,143 | 35 | 62 | Ipsos topline, Survey September 2026 |
| Sep 17–20 | 1,277 | 32 | 66 | Ipsos topline, September Core Political |
| Sep 30–Oct 5 | 4,506 | 32 | 65 | Ipsos topline, October Large Issue |

- Gaps and doubts: Ipsos's "February Core Political" and "March Core Political" release pages (18 Feb, 24 Mar) carry no PDF link, so those two toplines came from the Epstein-files release (same Feb 13–16 fieldwork) and from press for Mar 20–23. Ipsos's 6–9 Mar Iran poll topline has no overall approval question. No further Reuters/Ipsos approval readings were found for 2–13 Mar, 1–14 Apr or 1–23 Jul 2026; they may not exist. Disapproval is in this table only, not in the JSON.

## 3. de_diesel, de_diesel_annual, de_diesel_daily

- Opened: ADAC, "Spritpreis-Entwicklung: Benzin- und Dieselpreise seit 1950", https://www.adac.de/verkehr/tanken-kraftstoff-antrieb/deutschland/kraftstoffpreisentwicklung/ (page states "Stand 01.10.2026, 10:00 Uhr"). It carries month-by-month diesel averages for 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 and Jan–Sep 2026, and annual averages 2019–2025.
- Taken: all 69 monthly diesel averages Jan 2021 to Sep 2026 (no gaps) and the annual averages 2021–2025. The page prints 2021–2025 in cents (123,3) and 2026 in euros (1,692); all are EUR/l in the JSON.
- Cross-checks opened: ADAC press releases of 03.02.2026 (Jan 1.692), 01.04.2026 (Mar 2.164), 04.05.2026 (Apr 2.263), 01.10.2026 (Sep 2.386), plus eot-news (Jul 2.097, citing ADAC) and retail-news (Aug 2.223, citing ADAC). All agree with the table. May (1.991) and Jun (1.818) rest on the ADAC table alone; the ADAC June release was found in search results with the same 1.818 but the URL I opened for it turned out to be the 2021 release, so it is not an opened source. One secondary site (verbandsbuero, citing an April ADAC release) gave April as 2.346; the ADAC release itself says 2.263, which is used.
- Annual: 2021 1.385, 2022 1.946, 2023 1.722, 2024 1.649, 2025 1.611 (ADAC table). Press reports of ADAC's annual reviews agree (2023: 1.722; 2024: 1.649; 2025: 1.611).
- Daily: 2.409 from the ADAC release dated 30.09.2026 ("Benzin und Diesel etwas günstiger", https://presse.adac.de/meldungen/adac-ev/verkehr/benzin-und-diesel-etwas-guenstiger.html), down 1.9 ct on the week. The release does not name the reading day; its infographic is labelled 29.09.2026. 2.233 from the release of 07.10.2026 ("Tankrabatt nicht vollständig weitergegeben"), down 17.6 ct on the week.
- Tax cut: en2x press release of 30.09.2026, https://en2x.de/2026/09/30/energiesteuer-auf-benzin-und-diesel-wird-gesenkt/: energy tax on petrol and diesel falls by 14.04 ct/l from 1 Oct 2026 to year-end; "inklusive Mehrwertsteuer ergibt das eine rechnerische Entlastung von 16,7 Cent brutto". The ADAC release of 30.09 gives the same 16.7 ct. Recorded in the series notes, not as a point.
- Gaps: October 2026 monthly average not yet published. Nothing else missing.

## 4. five_capex, five_ocf, five_capex_annual, five_ocf_forecast

- Read: `/Users/wildebees/Cyborg/Active coding projects/wage-bet/tracking.html`, the `STRAIN` object (raw quarterly capex and operating cash flow per company, $B, Q1 2024 to Q2 2026, "quarterly cash-flow statements via stockanalysis.com, fetched 2026-07-31", cash capex only, finance leases excluded; Oracle on fiscal quarters ending Feb/May/Aug/Nov mapped to the nearest calendar quarter), the `GAP` object (used only to confirm the quarter grid and the $840bn split) and `SPEND_B_PER_YR = 840`.
- Read: `/Users/wildebees/Cyborg/Active coding projects/wage-bet/DERIVATIONS.md`, line 777: annual capex 2023 154.2 (Alphabet 32.25, Amazon 52.73, Meta 27.05, Microsoft 35.20, Oracle 6.93), 2024 239.1, 2025 411.5, and the note that the quarterly figures sum to 239.2 for 2024 (rounding).
- Per-company quarterly arrays used (Q1'24 to Q2'26):
  - Capex: Microsoft 11.0, 13.9, 14.9, 15.8, 16.7, 17.1, 19.4, 29.9, 30.9, 35.8; Alphabet 12.0, 13.2, 13.1, 14.3, 17.2, 22.4, 24.0, 27.9, 35.7, 44.9; Amazon 14.9, 17.6, 22.6, 27.8, 25.0, 32.2, 35.1, 39.5, 44.2, 54.2; Meta 6.4, 8.2, 8.3, 14.4, 12.9, 16.5, 18.8, 21.4, 19.0, 30.1; Oracle 1.7, 2.8, 2.3, 4.0, 5.9, 9.1, 8.5, 12.0, 18.6, 16.5 (an 11th Oracle value, 28.5 for its Aug-2026 quarter, is in the source and excluded here).
  - OCF: Microsoft 31.9, 37.2, 34.2, 22.3, 37.0, 42.6, 45.1, 35.8, 46.7, 55.4; Alphabet 28.8, 26.6, 30.7, 39.1, 36.2, 27.7, 48.4, 52.4, 45.8, 39.1; Amazon 19.0, 25.3, 26.0, 45.6, 17.0, 32.5, 35.5, 54.5, 26.0, 45.4; Meta 19.2, 19.4, 24.7, 28.0, 24.0, 25.6, 30.0, 36.2, 32.2, 31.9; Oracle 5.5, 6.1, 7.4, 1.3, 5.9, 6.2, 8.1, 2.1, 7.2, 14.6 (11th Oracle value 23.1 excluded).
- Sums are computed in the build script and checked: 2024 capex 239.2, 2025 capex 411.5. 2025 OCF sums to 602.8.
- `five_capex_annual`: 2023, 2024, 2025 from DERIVATIONS.md (kind real); 2026 = $840bn announced plans (MSFT 190, AMZN 220, GOOGL 200, META 137.5, ORCL 92.5, from the tracking.html comment), kind "forecast" because it is a plan, not an outturn.
- `five_ocf_forecast`: opened https://www.apollo.com/wealth/insights-news/insights/daily-spark/hyperscaler-credit-rests-on-one-consensus-assumption (Torsten Sløk, 21 Sep 2026): operating cash flow of Google, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft and Oracle "from $600 billion to $2 trillion", described as consensus (FactSet), "by 2030". The Apollo page does not state the base year. Opened Yahoo Finance, 23 Sep 2026 (Jake Conley, "Chart of the Day"), which quotes "$600 billion in 2025" and "roughly $2 trillion in 2030, per data compiled by Apollo Global". Both points kind "forecast".
- Gaps: calendar Q3 2026 for all five (reports due late October). Oracle's Q3 figure is excluded so the total stays a five-company total.

## 5. us_jobs

- Read: `tracking.html`, the `JOBS` object (asOf 2026-10-02, start 2023-01, written by `scripts/sync-payrolls.py` from BLS data).
- Taken: the 45 monthly changes in total nonfarm payrolls, thousands, Jan 2023 to Sep 2026, current vintage. First estimates as published, from `JOBS.first`: 2026-07 −23 (now −10), 2026-08 162 (now 133), 2026-09 29 (itself a first estimate). These are in the series' `firstEstimates` field and notes.
- No gaps. The BLS was not opened directly; the local file is the stated source.

## 6. us_10y

- Read: `/Users/wildebees/Cyborg/Active coding projects/wage-bet/debt.html` for the named closes (4.95 on 10 Sep, 5.01 on 16 and 18 Sep, above 5 from 23 Sep, 5.29 on 30 Sep, 5.28 on 2 Oct) and its source citation.
- Opened: US Treasury Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 10 Yr column, one page per month: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=2026MM for MM = 01 to 10.
- Taken: every trading day from 2 Jan to 13 Oct 2026, 196 points. All the debt.html closes match. Mid-February is 4.04 on 13 Feb and the low is 3.97 on 27 Feb. Latest: 5.21 on 13 Oct.
- Doubt: the Treasury page's column headers come through garbled as text; the 10 Yr column was located by counting maturities. The September and October values agree with debt.html's independently confirmed closes, which supports the column choice. There is no row for 10 Oct in the Treasury table; 12 Oct is the Columbus Day holiday.

## 7. eu_car_exports_us, eu_car_exports_us_annual

- Opened (curl): Eurostat Comext API, dataset DS-059341, https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/comext/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/DS-059341?format=JSON&lang=EN&reporter=EU27_2020&partner=US&product=8703&flow=2&indicators=VALUE_EUR&freq=M&sinceTimePeriod=2024-01 (dataset label "International trade of EU and non-EU countries since 2002 by HS2-4-6", updated 2026-09-15). The DS-045409 dataset the brief suggested and the non-comext API path both returned HTTP 400 ("Invalid value for 'sinceTimePeriod'") or 403; DS-059341 on the comext path worked.
- Taken: monthly export value in euros, Jan 2024 to Jul 2026 (31 points), divided by one million and rounded to 0.1. Aug 2026 onward is null in the API.
- Annual: same query with freq=A: 2023 41,606.5; 2024 39,686.2; 2025 31,231.9 (EUR million). 2025 is 21.3% below 2024.
- Cross-checks opened: Eunews, 4 May 2026 (Eurostat-based: EUR 31.23bn in 2025, −21.30%), which matches; ACEA fact sheet "EU-US vehicle trade" (4 May 2026): 667,794 cars, EUR 30.9bn in 2025, US share of EU car-export value 18.4% (21.9% in 2024). ACEA's value differs from Comext by about EUR 0.3bn; ACEA's compilation is used nowhere in the JSON.
- Gaps: Aug and Sep 2026 not yet published. No 2026 annual figure.

## 8. sp500, oat_bund_spread, oat_bund_spread_monthend

- sp500. Opened (curl): FRED series SP500 as CSV, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=SP500 (daily close, S&P Dow Jones Indices). Also opened the FRED series page (latest 7,805.45 on 13 Oct 2026). Taken: the last observation of each month Jan–Sep 2026 and the latest close (13 Oct). Macrotrends' listing, found in search results with identical values, returned HTTP 403 and is not relied on.
- oat_bund_spread. Opened (curl): FRED series IRLTLT01FRM156N (France) and IRLTLT01DEM156N (Germany), OECD long-term (10-year) government bond yields, monthly averages. Taken: Jan–Aug 2026, spread = France minus Germany, rounded to 0.01 pp. These are monthly averages, not month-end readings. Gap: Sep and Oct 2026 not yet published by OECD.
- oat_bund_spread_monthend. Opened: https://www.ideal-investisseur.fr/en/markets/oat-bund-spread.html (daily table citing Banque de France and Bundesbank, covering 27 Aug to 12 Oct 2026). Taken: 31 Aug 80.4 bp, 30 Sep 117.1 bp, 12 Oct 139.5 bp (latest), as percentage points. Gap: no month-ends before August from this source. Press context not used as data: Natixis put the spread near 60 bp in early June and 75–80 bp in August; CNBC and others reported it above 140–150 bp on 2 Oct (the tracker shows 146.9 bp that day).
- No investing.com, tradingeconomics or FT page was used; FRED and the tracker above were the pages that opened.

## 9. anthropic_runrate, anthropic_runrate_forecast_low/high

- Opened: Simon Willison, 29 May 2026, https://simonwillison.net/2026/May/29/anthropic/, which quotes Anthropic's own posts: Series H (28/29 May 2026) "our run-rate revenue crossed $47 billion earlier this month"; the 6 Apr 2026 Google/Broadcom post "surpassed $30 billion, up from approximately $9 billion at the end of 2025"; the Series G post (12 Feb 2026) "$14 billion". The anthropic.com pages themselves were not opened (CNBC and Axios copies of the August story returned 403).
- Opened: TechCrunch, 17 Aug 2026, https://techcrunch.com/2026/08/17/anthropics-annualized-revenue-surges-to-65b/: run rate "surpassed $65 billion at the end of July, Bloomberg reported"; "just $9 billion at the end of last year"; "$47 billion in May"; and, citing the Financial Times, investors expect it "to finish 2026 between $100 billion and $120 billion".
- Opened: Unite.ai, 17 Aug 2026, same figures, and explicit that the $100–120bn range is investor expectation, not company guidance.
- Taken: end-2025 9; 12 Feb 14; 6 Apr 30; 28 May 47 (dated on the announcement; refers to earlier in May, Willison's chart says 7 May); 31 Jul 65. Forecast: 100 and 120 at 2026-12-31 as two one-point series, kind "forecast".
- Doubt: all figures are company-stated run rates (latest month times twelve), relayed through press; none is audited revenue.

## Summary of gaps

- us_diesel: complete to 5 Oct 2026; the 12 Oct week not yet released.
- trump_approval: 22 polls; two rest on Reuters press copies rather than Ipsos PDFs; no polls found for 2–13 Mar, 1–14 Apr, 1–23 Jul.
- de_diesel: complete Jan 2021 to Sep 2026; May and Jun 2026 rest on the ADAC table alone.
- five_capex / five_ocf: complete Q1 2024 to Q2 2026; Q3 2026 pending.
- us_jobs: complete Jan 2023 to Sep 2026.
- us_10y: complete every trading day 2 Jan to 13 Oct 2026.
- eu_car_exports_us: complete Jan 2024 to Jul 2026; Aug and Sep 2026 pending.
- sp500: complete; October point is 13 Oct, not month end.
- oat_bund_spread: monthly averages Jan–Aug 2026 only; Sep and Oct exist only as month-end readings in the companion series.
- anthropic_runrate: five company-reported points; nothing after 31 Jul 2026.

## Revision history

- v1, 2026-10-14: first compilation.

## Story series (added 14 October 2026)

Seven `*_story` series carry the invented points, every one `"kind": "story"`, with the paragraph of the text or the storyboard beat each value rests on in its `notes`. They begin at the last real value where a series continues one (diesel, the yield, the spread, car exports, the S&P 500), so the chart's dashed line starts where the solid one ends. The US jobs story includes three filler months not stated in the text, marked as such. `story.recordEnds` is the divider date, 14 October 2026.

## EU27 population and the qualified-majority rule (added 16 October 2026)

`eu27.countries` holds the population of each member state on 1 January 2025 from Eurostat's tps00001 (Population on 1 January), read through the API on 16 October 2026 (dataset updated 30 September 2026). Total 451,284,558. `eu27.qmv` holds the rule the interactive applies: at least 15 of the 27 member states representing at least 65% of the population (Article 16(4) TEU), and a blocking minority must include at least four members (Article 238(3) TFEU). The presets in the interactive are the story's: which countries vote which way in January and February 2027 is invented.

## Figure cards and the order book (added 17 October 2026)

`cards` holds the small numbers set beside paragraphs in the margin, each with its source in place; two are derived from series in this file (`capex-second` from the 2026 plan, `heating-oil` from the story's diesel prices) and say so. One correction to the text came out of sourcing them: the diesel share of new cars in Western Europe was 55.8% in 2010, not 2011 (US DoE Fact #716, from Automotive Industry Data). `bond_sale` holds the story's first common bond sale and the real precedent of June 2021 (Commission press release of 15 June 2021), with the map pins marked as invented.